BJP’S BIGGER WORRY AHEAD OF UP ELECTIONS

NEW DELHI: The latest Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey predicts a tougher road ahead for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, which goes to assembly polls next year. Experts said the bigger worry for the BJP may not be the Gen Z, but the generation that raised them. Here’s why.

Experts cited the  latest India Today-CVoter Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey. The August MOTN numbers have predicted a tougher road for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, which goes to polls in about six months from now.

The latest survey projects 41 of the state’s 80 Lok Sabha seats for the INDIA bloc, compared with 38 for the BJP-led NDA, if elections were held today. It marks a big shift from the January 2026 MOTN poll, which projected 48 seats for the NDA and 31 for the INDIA bloc.

Now, there is a big caveat. The numbers, which are for Lok Sabha polls, do not amount to a prediction for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections. But the wider picture points to a political vulnerability for the BJP in a state that has been central to its electoral dominance over the last decade.

It is no secret that Uttar Pradesh polls have always set the tone for the next general elections. With 80 Lok Sabha seats, the state can make or break a national political narrative. This is exactly why the battle for UP next year will be one of the closely watched elections.

You might attribute it to the recent Gen Z anger over unemployment and exam-related irregularities, but psephologist Yashwant Deshmukh suggested that the more consequential shift could be taking place among Gen X. The group includes people born between 1965 and 1980.

Of late, the upper castes, BJP’s core vote base, have been upset with the party over the University Grants Commission (UGC) equity regulations aimed at preventing caste discrimination in educational institutions.

While the regulations have been put on hold, the Centre has not withdrawn them, sparking unease among the upper castes. The issue has also sparked a massive protest by an outfit, Reservation Hatao Andolan, at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar. The outfit has demanded that reservation be determined strictly by income levels rather than social or caste identities.

Deshmukh said Gen X experienced the Mandal Commission upheaval in 1989, and the UGC issue was now bringing those memories back.

“The main issue is UGC. People are talking about Gen Z, but the focus should actually shift to Gen X. Because it was Gen X which faced the Mandal Commission way back in 1989,” he said during a panel discussion on India Today TV.

Deshmukh underlined that Gen X fear that their children could face similar consequences because of the UGC regulations.

“They (Gen X) are reminded of everything that happened in 1989. They fear that they handled that period poorly, and it affected them badly, and now their kids are going to be impacted by the UGC,” he further said.

The decision by the VP Singh-led government to implement the Mandal Commission recommendations in 1990, granting 27% reservation in central government jobs and universities to OBCs, sparked a massive backlash from the upper castes. Protests and violence broke out across several north Indian states.

Deshmukh feels the new UGC regulations have revived that memory among Gen X. The grouse among the upper castes is that the new regulations exclude general category students from specific protection against caste-based discrimination.

It has become a political hot-button issue in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

In fact, one reason behind the BJP’s recent defeat in the Bankipur bypoll in Bihar was attributed to upper-caste dissatisfaction over the UGC issue.

For the BJP, the upper castes have been a core constituency of the party in Uttar Pradesh since 1989. Upper-caste communities such as Brahmins and Kshatriyas account for over 20% of Uttar Pradesh’s electorate.

According to a report in The Indian Express, the BJP feels that even if a small section (around 2-3%) decides not to vote in the 2027 election, it would damage the party’s prospects in UP.

“The UGC issue is hitting their (BJP) core upper-caste vote base. They are worried that if you set up these committees in colleges that will allow the SCs, STs, OBCs to make complaints against seeming atrocities on campus, it will give wide-ranging powers to SC/ST students,” senior journalist Rajdeep Sardesai said during the discussion.

RAM MANDIR ISSUE
Compounding matters for the BJP is the embezzlement of donations from the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. For the BJP, the Ram Mandir has always been an emotive issue and remains deeply embedded in its political narrative. The controversy has added another layer of discontent against the party.

In fact, the August MOTN survey found that 47% of respondents believe the Ram temple donation theft row has negatively affected both the Narendra Modi and Yogi Adityanath governments.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has already experienced what a more fragmented Uttar Pradesh electorate can do. The BJP’s seat tally in the state fell sharply from 2019, with the party winning 36 seats. The Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance secured 43 seats.

It showed that the BJP’s formidable electoral machinery and Hindutva appeal could be challenged when opposition parties consolidate social groups and translate local grievances into a broader political narrative.

These issues make Uttar Pradesh a much more complicated electoral battlefield for the BJP ahead of the 2027 assembly polls.