BJP FACES TOUGH BATTLE AS CAMPAIGN FOR FIRST PHASE, BIHAR POLL ENDS
NEW DELHI: With campaigning for the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections drawing to a close, the political temperature has peaked, setting the stage for a fierce contest between the ruling NDA and the Mahagathbandhan.
As the battlelines become clearer, early indicators from ground assessments suggest significant churn in the political landscape, particularly in Patna district, a traditional stronghold of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
A senior NDA functionary, while assessing the internal feedback, admitted that the BJP may face an unexpected setback in the state capital region. Out of the 14 assembly seats in Patna district, the BJP—which secured nine seats here in the 2020 Assembly polls—may manage to win only three to four this time, according to internal estimates. The first-phase polling on November 6 will therefore be crucial for the party, which has heavily invested organisational and star-campaigner resources in the district.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi personally spearheaded the campaign push in Patna, leading a massive roadshow and addressing a high-energy public rally in an attempt to bolster the party’s prospects. However, despite the high-octane efforts, the local electoral undercurrents appear unpredictable and volatile.
The performance of the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP), a key NDA ally allotted four seats in Patna district, is also under scrutiny. Sources within the alliance indicate that the party is struggling on the ground and may not secure a single seat—an outcome that could further dent NDA’s tally.
Political observers believe this shifting momentum reflects deeper voter sentiment shaped by anti-incumbency, unemployment concerns, and the formidable mobilisation machinery of the Mahagathbandhan led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav. If trends hold, the BJP risks being pushed into the third slot in multiple constituencies, a dramatic reversal from its previous dominance.
Given these projections, BJP strategists are increasingly counting on Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s residual support base to retain power. With early reports hinting at a tightening race, NDA’s dependence on the Janata Dal (United) is growing stronger, underscoring the complex arithmetic at play. As one strategist bluntly put it, “To keep Tejashwi out of power, we need Nitish more than ever.”
The stakes for the BJP are unusually high in this election—not only to protect its bastion but also to reinforce its political authority in a state known for volatile electoral swings. With phase-one voting just days away, Bihar is preparing for a contest that could reshape the state’s power balance and send ripples through national politics.
[Writer is Senior Journalist and Political Commentator]
