NEW DELHI: As Bihar heads into the second and final phase of voting on Tuesday, the political atmosphere across the state is electric and sharply divided by speculation over the likely winner. This concluding phase will not only determine the future of the state government but also redefine political equations among the major players — the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan, the NDA, and regional outfits.
Political observers and ground reports suggest that the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is emerging as the frontrunner and could possibly become the single largest party in the new Bihar Assembly. The Janata Dal (United), led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, is expected to secure the second position, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) appears to be losing its earlier grip, slipping to the third slot in the race.
Veteran journalist Kanhaiya Bhelari remarked that any such projection ultimately hinges on whether both rounds of polling are conducted in a free and fair manner. “The mood on the ground is clearly leaning toward a change, but the final outcome will depend on how fair the electoral process remains,” Bhelari observed.
In the Seemanchal and Champaran regions, where communal and developmental factors often shape voter sentiment, the Congress appears to be a potential gainer. Party strategists are optimistic that Congress will reclaim several seats it lost in the previous election, particularly in areas where BJP’s base is reportedly weakening. The erosion of BJP’s vote share in these regions could prove decisive for the overall performance of the Mahagathbandhan alliance.
Meanwhile, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi, is facing a significant setback this time. Compared to the five seats it won in the last assembly polls, the party is expected to lose ground as voters appear to be consolidating behind the RJD-Congress combine. Analysts say that in many constituencies, AIMIM’s vote fragmentation in the previous election inadvertently benefited the NDA; however, this time, the reverse trend could work against the BJP and JDU.
The BJP, which dominated several constituencies in 2020, is now facing internal and alliance-level challenges. Party insiders admit that JDU’s lukewarm support to BJP candidates in several crucial seats of this second phase may further complicate the saffron party’s prospects.
As polling day approaches, Bihar finds itself at a political crossroads — with growing anti-incumbency, shifting caste loyalties, and voter fatigue redefining traditional strongholds. The outcome of this final phase will not only decide the power map of Bihar but may also set the tone for future national alliances ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
[Writer is Senior Journalist and Political Commentator]
