New Delhi, November 12:Exit polls are often considered a snapshot of voter sentiment—an indicator of what might unfold when votes are counted. Yet, when it comes to Bihar, a state known for its complex social structure and unpredictable political swings, these projections have repeatedly failed to capture the ground reality. The last two assembly elections—2015 and 2020—stand as clear examples of how national pollsters misread the state’s political pulse.
Bihar has long been a challenging terrain for pollsters. The state’s multi-layered caste equations, rural-urban divide, migration factors, and micro-level local alliances make it extremely difficult to gauge voting patterns through limited samples. Beyond caste, issues like law and order, economic aspirations, and development narratives influence voters differently across regions, rendering a one-size-fits-all exit poll approach unreliable.
In the 2015 Assembly elections, almost every major pollster underestimated the scale of the Mahagathbandhan’s victory. The alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Janata Dal (United), and Congress—then a formidable anti-BJP coalition—was predicted to win a narrow lead over the NDA. However, the results defied those projections, delivering a sweeping victory to the Grand Alliance with over 178 seats out of 243. The NDA, which was widely expected to pose a strong challenge, ended up with just 58 seats, exposing the severe limitations of pre- and post-poll methodologies in Bihar’s volatile landscape.
The story repeated itself, albeit in reverse, in the 2020 Bihar Assembly elections. This time, the majority of exit polls predicted a clear edge for the Mahagathbandhan, led by RJD’s Tejashwi Yadav and supported by Congress and the Left parties. An average of 11 exit polls projected that the opposition alliance would bag around 125 seats, leaving the ruling NDA—led by the BJP and JD(U)—with barely 108 seats, well below the halfway mark of 122 required to form a government.
However, when the actual results were declared, the predictions fell flat. The NDA pulled off a narrow but decisive victory, securing 125 seats, while the Mahagathbandhan managed only 110. The surprise outcome once again highlighted the disconnect between statistical sampling and Bihar’s intricate on-ground realities.
Experts attribute these failures to several factors. The underrepresentation of women voters, who have shown distinct and decisive preferences in recent years, has skewed projections. Moreover, silent voters, especially from economically weaker and marginalized communities, often do not disclose their voting preferences in exit polls, leading to distorted data. The timing and reach of these surveys—concentrated largely in urban and semi-urban booths—further narrows their accuracy.
Another critical aspect lies in the regional variation of Bihar’s voting behaviour. Northern and central Bihar often swing differently from southern districts, and last-minute caste and local alliances can upend even the most well-modeled predictions.
As the 2025 Bihar assembly elections await counting, analysts and political watchers remain cautious about reading too much into exit poll projections. If the past two election cycles are any indication, Bihar continues to defy conventional poll mathematics, reminding political pundits that in this state, the only reliable survey is the one conducted inside the EVMs.
Bihar’s voters, complex yet politically conscious, have once again proven that their verdict can never be reduced to a mere percentage point or an algorithm—it’s a pulse that beats far beyond prediction.
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