NEW DELHI: With Nitish Kumar’s new cabinet taking oath on November 20, it has become increasingly evident that both the JD(U) leader and the BJP have carefully calibrated their political strategies not just for Bihar, but for the neighbouring battleground of Uttar Pradesh. The UP Assembly elections, scheduled just 15 months from now, have already begun shaping the BJP’s long-term planning.
For the past one year, the BJP has devoted most of its political resources to Bihar, fully prepared to fight alone if the situation demanded. At the same time, the party leadership remained confident that Nitish Kumar would not abruptly shift his political position, given the steady cooperation he has enjoyed from the Modi government at the Centre.
In a significant move, Union Home Minister Amit Shah entrusted UP Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya with the task of closely observing Bihar’s caste arithmetic during the campaign. Maurya, an influential figure from the Kurmi community, was reportedly given charge of nearly 75 constituencies to monitor voter behaviour and OBC dynamics.
His deployment was strategic: the Kurmi community—forming around 9 to 10 percent of Bihar’s OBC base—forms a crucial part of Nitish Kumar’s traditional support.
The BJP’s Uttar Pradesh strategy hinges on this very demography. Kurmi voters in UP are almost double in proportion compared to Bihar, and in several districts they, along with other OBC and EBC groups, are traditionally aligned with the Samajwadi Party.
The saffron party now aims to chip away at this base by replicating the Bihar model of caste balancing and targeted outreach.
Sources within the BJP indicate that the party leadership is seriously considering to project a strong OBC face as a potential Chief Minister candidate for UP. This possibility gains weight as reports suggest that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah are not entirely satisfied with the functioning of the current UP Chief Minister, Yogi Adityanath.
For the BJP, the lessons from Bihar are clear: caste calculus, especially the consolidation of Kurmi and broader OBC support, can dramatically shift political outcomes. As the 2027 UP election countdown begins, the party appears determined to apply its “Bihar-tested” formula to engineer a broader social coalition capable of delivering a decisive mandate.
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