NEW DELHI: As campaigning intensifies for the first phase of the Bihar Assembly elections, both the ruling NDA and the Opposition Mahagathbandhan are heading toward a razor-thin and unpredictable contest. Internal dissensions, rejected nominations, and fractured seat-sharing deals have turned the political battlefield volatile just weeks before polling.
The Mahagathbandhan, led by Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Congress, is still grappling with seat-sharing discord. Despite protracted talks, the two major allies failed to resolve disputes on several constituencies. Congress, which was earlier expected to contest around 60 seats, received a last-minute setback when RJD fielded its own candidates on nine crucial seats traditionally associated with Congress influence.
These overlapping claims have sparked resentment within Congress circles, where leaders view the move as a direct affront to the party’s prestige.
Ground reports indicate that such intra-alliance contests could cost the Mahagathbandhan dearly. Analysts suggest that the split in opposition votes may provide the ruling NDA with a decisive advantage, especially in marginal constituencies. “In at least a dozen seats, RJD and Congress candidates are locked in direct contests, inadvertently helping NDA nominees,” a political observer in Patna noted.
However, the ruling NDA, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United), is also not without its own troubles. The rejection of nomination papers of Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) candidate and Bhojpuri film actress Seema Singh from the Madhura seat over technical errors has jolted the alliance’s campaign machinery. The incident, though minor on paper, has symbolically exposed cracks in the NDA’s internal coordination.
Tensions are also rising between the JDU and BJP over the latter’s growing proximity to Chirag Paswan’s faction of the LJP, which has been allotted 29 seats under the NDA umbrella. Senior JDU leaders privately admit unease with the BJP’s “patronage” of Chirag Paswan, fearing that mutual distrust between JDU and LJP cadres could hurt the alliance in several constituencies.
Adding to the churn, Prashant Kishor, the political strategist-turned-activist, has predicted a humiliating defeat for Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, claiming that the JDU will be “reduced to just 25 seats.” Kishor reminded that in the 2020 Assembly polls, Nitish’s party managed to win only 43 out of 115 seats it contested, registering its worst strike rate in two decades.
Meanwhile, the BJP leadership has kept its cards close, declaring that the Chief Minister’s post will be decided only after the elections by the newly elected NDA MLAs — a move interpreted by observers as a signal that Nitish Kumar’s future remains uncertain.
With internal fissures within both camps, rejected nominations, and seat-sharing confusion clouding the campaign, Bihar’s first-phase polls are shaping up to be a high-stakes, unpredictable battle, where even minor missteps could tilt the balance in either direction.
(Writer is Senior Journalist and Political Commentator)
Picture credit, social media
