NEW DELHI: India is heading into a challenging monsoon season, with the weather department forecasting below-normal rainfall across most of the country and warning of an above-normal number of heatwave days in several states starting as early as June.
The India Meteorological Department on Friday issued its second-stage long-range forecast for the June-September monsoon season, projecting national rainfall at 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a model error margin of four per cent.
IMD Director General Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, addressing a press conference, said the outlook pointed to a season that would fall short of normal for large parts of the country. “We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 percent of the LPA, with a 4 percent model error,” he said.
The regional picture is uneven. Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall, within the 94 to 106 percent band. However, Central India, South Peninsular India, Northwest India and the Monsoon Core Zone, the agricultural heartland that depends most heavily on seasonal rains, are all projected to receive below-normal rainfall.
For June specifically, most parts of the country are likely to see rainfall below 92 percent of the LPA, though some pockets of Northwest India, Northeast India and the southern peninsula may see normal to above-normal showers.
Heat to intensify before the rains arrive
Alongside the rainfall shortfall, the IMD warned of a punishing start to June on the temperature front. Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to remain above normal across most of the country, with the exception of parts of Central, Northwest and East India.
Heatwave days are forecast to be above normal in Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, with parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu also likely to experience increased heat stress.
Some relief, however, is on the way for the northwest in the short term. The IMD on Thursday forecast a break from severe heat across Northwest India over the next three days, driven by western disturbances and easterly winds that are expected to bring thunderstorms, gusty winds and hailstorm activity to several areas.
The most significant concern underpinning the forecast is the transition of oceanic conditions towards El Nino, a weather phenomenon historically associated with weaker monsoons over South Asia. Mohapatra said neutral ENSO conditions are already shifting, with the probability of El Nino developing rising to 82 percent by June and crossing 90 percent by July and August. Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are expected to persist through the season, offering little counterbalance.
