NEW DELHI: A warming patch of water thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean may soon begin influencing daily life across India.
Scientists are increasingly watching the development of El Nino, a natural climate pattern that can alter weather around the world. While it originates in the tropical Pacific, its effects often reach India through changes in the southwest monsoon, the annual rain-bearing system that supports the country’s farms, reservoirs and water supplies.
Global organisations, including the World Economic Forum (WEF), have warned that the emerging El Nino could become more than just a weather event. Its ripple effects may be felt across agriculture, energy, transportation and food systems simultaneously.
For millions of Indian farmers, the monsoon is the most important season of the year. Nearly half of India’s agricultural land still relies on rainfall rather than irrigation, making timely and adequate monsoon showers crucial for crops such as rice, pulses, soybean, cotton and maize.
If El Nino weakens rainfall or causes long dry spells, farmers may be forced to delay sowing, switch to less water-intensive crops or depend more heavily on irrigation. Crop yields could also suffer if higher temperatures combine with reduced rainfall during key growing periods.
The effects would extend beyond farms. Lower agricultural output can affect food supplies and put upward pressure on the prices of essential commodities, particularly pulses and cereals that form a staple part of Indian diets.
