NEW DELHI,15 April 2026 : The outcome of polling in two seats in Kerala and Tamil Nadu may raise a political storm in the heartland state of Madhya Pradesh, nearly 2,000 kilometres from the southern states. Two Rajya Sabha MPs from Madhya Pradesh, Union Ministers Dr L Murugan and George Kurian, are candidates in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, respectively, and their poll prospects may vacate Madhya Pradesh’s Rajya Sabha seats, triggering frenetic political activity in the state.
Three Rajya Sabha seats from Madhya Pradesh have become vacant this month after Congress veteran Digvijaya Singh and BJP leaders Dr Sumer Singh Solanki and George Kurian completed their terms. Now, if Murugan is elected in the Tamil Nadu polls and joins the state Assembly, one more Rajya Sabha seat from Madhya Pradesh will be vacated. This will set off an intense scramble, opening doors to political realignment and new power equations within the BJP and Congress alike.
Election to the Rajya Sabha is based on a complex formula: (Total MLAs divided by (No. of vacant seats + 1) + 1). Madhya Pradesh has 230 MLAs, so if three seats are vacated. Then the formula would be (230 MLAs divided by (3 + 1) + 1). So the quota, or the number of votes required to win a Rajya seat, would be 58.
The BJP, with over 160 MLAs, can comfortably win two seats. The Congress has 65 MLAs and can easily win one. But there is a twist. The Congress’s Rajendra Bhati has been disqualified from the Assembly after conviction in a cheating case.
The election of another Congress MLA, Mukesh Malhotra, was declared null and void after he was found to have suppressed information about pending criminal cases against him. And MLA Nirmala Sapre, who switched from Congress to the BJP, cannot vote either.
The Congress then effectively has 62 votes, just four more than the cut-off. This means that crossvoting by just four MLAs can effectively rob Congress of an assured seat. And the recent signals are unsettling.
From MLAs sharing stages at RSS-linked events to open ideological clashes, the faultlines are visible. As for the BJP, it has 47 surplus votes, 11 short of the quota of 58. And it may try to spring a surprise by reaching out to a section of Congress MLAs to cash in on the infighting.
Picture credit social media
