Wars are bad, anyway. But when they combine with adverse weather conditions worldwide, they become deadly. We are heading for a global food crisis triggered by both. Come winter, even the rich will not escape.
Over four years of war in Ukraine and six months in the Gulf – both showing no signs of ending – confront mankind with one of its worst food crises. Also, animals that were once part of our household roaming the streets in search of food. The ‘holy’ cow and pets are ‘stray’. Unable to feed them, we have abandoned them.
When both conflicts are escalating, triggering smaller ones, it is obvious but equally futile to condemn human greed for power, territory, energy resources, cornering of trade, and control of waterways as fully responsible.
The situation is particularly serious for people already facing acute food insecurity. The UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) has warned that 50 million people are likely to be pushed into acute hunger before the end of next year by the El Niño weather phenomenon.
Central and South America, the Caribbean and southern Africa are likely to be worst affected, according to the WFP. This year’s El Niño may turn out to be the strongest in at least 70 years, analysts believe.
Soaring costs for farmers around the world, from fertiliser and diesel to labour, will further jeopardise food security if many farmers decide that it is no longer profitable to continue with farming.
A 3.4% month-on-month rise in the Cereal Price Index drove the trend, fuelled in turn by a 5.8% jump in wheat prices, the FAO said.
Increased food commodity prices could translate into higher prices on shelves in the coming months, as suppliers pass on their costs to consumers.
The Gulf War has been pushing up food prices in recent months, as about a third of fertiliser production travels through the Strait of Hormuz.
Just before the Gulf War began, the world, recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic, was hit by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The two continue to attack one another’s port infrastructure, blocking shipments from what is the “breadbasket of Europe”. This has driven up wheat prices, adding to a grim cocktail of factors affecting global food supply.
The two vast nations are estimated to produce around a quarter of the world’s grain exports. They exported nearly 100 million metric tons of grain between them in the year to June. Shipments since Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 have continued thanks to diplomatic agreements to protect global food supplies.
But the recent military strikes on grain export facilities, oil tankers and vessels in the Black Sea region have now made it too challenging for shipping firms to get insurance, causing many to avoid its ports. Finding alternative routes has been difficult since low water flow in the Danube and Rhine rivers.
Ongoing obstruction of those waterways in both these theatres of conflict is helping drive up the price of agricultural products such as fertiliser — and adding to farming woes in the process.
As a result, to explain the crisis in the language of a homemaker: instant noodles, hot chapatis and sliced bread have become dearer. Of course, wheat is at the heart of the modern diet.
The one saving grace this year is that the world had a bumper wheat crop in 2025. There is still leftover grain stored in the silos of the farmers, traders and government reserves. But that situation is uneven; the poor nations have no such comfort. They must buy from the market, or invite discontent at home.
This year should serve as a wake-up call. The world is enormously dependent on a handful of breadbaskets; when something goes wrong, there are few other options.
The vegetable growers’ association, Légumes de France, warned earlier this week that thousands of tonnes of products worth tens of millions of euros had been lost. That included salad leaves, carrots, leeks, garlic and onions.
In India, although official statistics indicate that the crisis has, by and large, been satisfactorily managed, with buffer reserves (China has them many times, though), the coming festivals could push up the prices of essentials.
Reports of 30,000 tonnes of onions rotting due to unseasonal rains and poor storage have, however, sounded the alarm. A government in Delhi lost an election because it could not provide onions during the festive season.
Then there are President Trump’s tariffs. The latest is his threat that Washington will discontinue trade with any nation that has a trade surplus with the US but does not reduce its taxes.
To try to avoid additional higher rates, some wheat-importing emerging economies, such as Bangladesh, have agreed to buy substantial amounts of American wheat. That, in effect, means they are obliged to pay whatever price US wheat goes for, even if it is substantially higher than what other countries are offering. Analysts in Bangladesh have denounced the deal as unfair. Anywhere else, this is usually a decision forced by economic circumstances.
But wheat remains crucial. Wheat prices were already at a three-year high in July, according to the FAO. The rising prices will put enormous pressure on governments that are forced to buy high and then subsidise costs to keep bread prices within reach.
History is replete with examples. Few things are as politically potent as the price of bread. Slogans and promises which most governments hold out when cornered will not feed the hungry.
Finally, unless the wars end, which seems a distant hope, and the economies stabilise, which is still farther away, food-driven turmoil in many nations across the world seems most likely.
Here is a warning to America’s chokehold on the global food crisis, contained in a Russian proverb. It applies to both Trump and Putin: “The rich would have to eat money if the poor did not get food.”
Mahendra Ved is a veteran Journalist and an Expert on international affairs.
