Litmus Test awaits Jan-Suraaj in Bankipur
Even though formal notification regarding bye election for Bankipur assembly seat of Bihar is yet to be released by Election Commission of India, the political temperature in the state in general and Patna in particular has soared significantly with the beginning of verbal duel and political tug of war for seeking people’s attention and support among political parties in the state. Here, it is worth mentioning that the seat fell vacant after BJP’s High Command elevated Nitin Nabin, five times consecutive winner—-including one time from erstwhile Patna West Constituency before delimitation—-to national level as party’s president. As the new responsibilities required Nabin to move to Rajya Sabha, he quit the Bankipur assembly seat thereby necessitating a by-election.
As a matter of fact, Bankipur is going to be one of the closely watched elections. The reasons behind it are twofold.
One, the likelihood of Prashant Kishor himself being in the fray would definitely attract huge media attention. What is more, if Kishor decides to throw his hat in the ring for by election—-his candidature being officially formalised in the party’s working committee and not finalized yet—-then a large chunk of voters who did not vote for Jan Suraaj candidate in this constituency during the 2025 assembly election, may consider voting for him en masse.
For, the kind of voters Kishor has so far been appealing to are inhabitants of this constituency : Professionals, government employees, middle class, students etc. Thus these urban and educated voters are likely to be receptive to Kishor’s reformist idea of all-round development. However, the question remains : how would Jan Suraaj be able to translate their appraisal for Prashant into votes? This is a daunting task indeed, keeping in mind the party’s weakness in the area of booth management.
On this issue of electoral importance, party’s state president Manoj Bharti has no qualms admitting that due to lack of skilled manpower, this has been our biggest mistake in the past. But this time around, we have rectified the mistake, strengthened the organizational power and honed up the necessary skills of booth management that could match up with those of BJP, Bharti avers.
Two, from all available electoral indicators, Bankipur has been one of BJP’s strongholds since 1990. The father-son duo, firstly Navin Kumar Sinha and later his son Nitin Nabin, ruled the roost from 1995 to 2025. It may be recalled that in 1995, Navin Kumar Sinha got elected from Patna West constituency and served the constituency until his death in 2006. He won the assembly seat in the 2005 assembly election before his death in 2006.
Following his demise, his son Nitin Nabin won the subsequent by-election and later continued to win four consecutive terms till 2025. On this score, it is to be noted that after the occurrence of delimitation in 2008, Patna West was named Bankipur assembly constituency.
Interestingly the father-son duo—-who were kayastha by caste—-was electorally benefited by the constituency’s social profile which is predominantly having an upper caste population notably Kayasthas with its presence of 23 percent. Thus the duo was able to create a personal support base over the decades.
Apart from the Kayasthas community, BJP, over the years, has been mobilising and actually getting support from other upper caste communities of Brahmin, Bhumihars, Rajput, Vaishya and Bania thereby making it nearly-invincible in the process.
However, as of now, Jan Suraaj’s state president Manoj Bharti rebuts this and says that people at large in this constituency are fed up with the father-son duo and are looking for a change. Bharti blames the duo for not doing enough for the people of this constituency.
Upon being asked about the pluses that go in favour of Jan Suraaj, Bharti says that Bankipur is the area where half of the population belongs to higher echelons of society. In the earlier elections, people did not find a worthwhile alternative to go out of their homes to vote. “The people of Bankipur often used to say : What difference will it make whether I cast my vote or not? Nitin Nabin is going to win anyway,” Bharti points out.
He further adds up that judging the response of people this time, they are willing to vote as they have found an alternative.
When prodded as to how he is arguing that over the years, people have not been coming out of their houses to vote in Bankipur, Bharti explains that Bankipur has had 34 to 39 percent of voting whereas other parts of Bihar have witnessed voting percentage hovering between 52 and 55. This goes on to prove that people have not been coming out to vote in Bankipur, he avers.
While castigating BJP for its misrule in Bihar, he says that neither the state chief minister nor the NDA government at the centre has taken initiative to invite NITI Ayog members in Bihar for discussing the economic ills plaguing the state.
On the other hand, BJP has already done initial spadework as party’s national president Nitin Nabin held discussions with president, vice president and general secretary of the party’s each committee—-overseeing 10 electoral wards of Bankipur—-to have a feel of ground reality in the constituency, says Prabhat Malakar, state media-in-charge of BJP.
Malakar further says that after that the national president had a secret meeting with both party’s state president and chief minister, Samrat Chaudhary at chief minister’ s official residence. Since all election-related things happen in Delhi, the national president, chief minister and state president would jointly take a decision regarding the selection of a candidate. In fact, the party is waiting for an official notification from the Election Commission. Only after that, the party’s election committee will declare a candidate for Bankipur,” explains Malakar.
When queried about a probable BJP’s candidate for Bankipur, Malakar opines that most probably, the party is most likely to choose a Kayastha candidate, since the constituency is predominantly inhabited by Kayastha community. And the names such as Ajay Alok, Sanjay Mayukh, Rituraj Sinha etc. are in race for candidature, Malakar explains in a matter-of-factly manner.
Malakar is of the opinion that he does not foresee any threat or challenge from any political party in Bankipur as both father and son have implemented many welfare-centric schemes for inhabitants of this constituency. Malakar cites examples of modern roads which were constructed during their tenures.
What is more, Malakar points out the fact that Nitin Nabin during his term as MLA took the pains to continuously monitor the transformation of Mandiri Nala—-situated in his constituency—-into a major covered box drain topped with a two-lane smart road. By dint of his painstaking efforts and supervision, the project was completed thereby eliminating foul odour from Nala, flood risks for central Patna and decongesting traffic snarls in Patna, Malakar explains.
In addition to it, people of Bihar have appreciated the varied forms of welfare-oriented programmes and policies of the NDA government. As regards Bankipur, he points out the fact that it has been observed that the party who has won the assembly seat during general elections also normally wins the same seat when a by-election for it is held.
In the final analysis, in case of Kishor throwing down the gauntlet ; in that very situation ; even if BJP wins, it would not be smooth sailing for its candidate to retain the 62 percent vote share Nitin Nabin had bagged in the last assembly election. The predicament for BJP is that any reduction in its winning margin would be a referendum for its government’ s popularity in the state in particular and its organizational capability in general. It is not an off-the-cuff remark to say that political prestige of the party is at stake in Bankipur.
Therefore for all practical purposes, BJP would not sit pretty and would apply all winnable strategies at its command for its candidate to register victory with a huge vote share.
